PROSPECT PROJECTION MODEL

Prospect Probabilities

The data behind the pick.

We re-ran eleven drafts. The model held up.

We tested the Prospect Probabilities Model (PPM) on every draft from 2010 to 2020. Same slots, same teams: PPM picks instead of the actual ones. Across eleven classes, the model's selections outproduced every franchise's real draft classes.

The 2026 PPM Draft List is built on the same engine.

Prospect Probabilities Model

2026 PPM Draft List
Top 32 Skaters

Forwards and defensemen combined, ranked by Score.

Model outputs are probabilistic estimates. See our Data Disclaimer.
Position

2026 PPM Draft List
Forwards

Top 10 overall · Top 18 feeder leagues · 2026 class

Overall · Top 10 2026 Class
Top Feeder Leagues
Model outputs are probabilistic estimates. See our Data Disclaimer.
Position

2026 PPM Draft List
Defensemen

Top 10 overall · Top 18 feeder leagues · 2026 class

Overall · Top 10 2026 Class
Top Feeder Leagues
Model outputs are probabilistic estimates. See our Data Disclaimer.
Position

2026 PPM Draft List
Goalies

Top 10 overall · Top 18 feeder leagues · 2026 class

Overall · Top 10 2026 Class
Top Feeder Leagues
Model outputs are probabilistic estimates. See our Data Disclaimer.
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Prospect Probabilities Model Definitions
Every prospect below is scored against the historical career outcomes of comparable profiles - same league, same age, same position - so an OHL forward isn't held to the same bar as an Allsvenskan defenceman.
Make NHL % Probability of an NHL career
How likely is this prospect to play meaningful NHL games?
The chance this player reaches a meaningful NHL career - the model's tier classification settles once a player logs roughly 200 NHL games (skaters) or 100 (goalies); below that they read as "Never Reached NHL." Built from 40+ feeder leagues across 60+ draft classes shown on the site (~20 of which carry most of the signal driving the model). Updates each season as the prospect's age, production, and league context change.
Answers: Will they make the NHL?
CarProj Projected career production tier
What career tier do we expect them to reach?
The projected career tier, calibrated from the player's full outcome-probability distribution - not their most likely single bucket. Each tier earns points proportional to how likely it is, and the aggregate score lands the prospect at a tier. Forwards, defencemen, and goalies each have their own distribution and tier ladder.
Answers: What's their ceiling?
Feeder Leagues Why league context matters
Why is the same point total weighted differently across leagues?
Each ranked league has its own historical conversion rate to the NHL. A point-per-game season in the SHL graduates more often than the same line in the QMJHL; the model normalizes within league before comparing across them. The 18 mini-boards shown here cover the bulk of the scored prospect pool, but the model itself ranks across all 47 feeder leagues - players from leagues without a dedicated card still appear in the Top 32 / Forwards / Defensemen / Goalies tables.
Answers: Does where they play matter as much as how they produce?
Tiers Forwards: 6 tiers · Defencemen: 5 tiers
Career Arc Classification System
Forwards
Elite - Franchise-level
Top Line - First-line production
2nd Line - Second-line production
3rd Line - Depth scoring role
4th Line - Low production
Depth - Minimal NHL role
Defencemen
Elite - Franchise-level
Top Pair - Top-pair production
2nd Pair - Second-pair production
Bottom Pair - Third-pair depth production
Depth - 7th D / Minimal NHL role
A player can have different tiers across CarProj and CarProd.