The chance this player reaches a meaningful NHL career – the model’s tier classification settles once a player logs roughly 200 NHL games (skaters) or 100 (goalies). Players who reached the NHL but fell short of that show their actual games played; only those who never appeared read as “Never Reached NHL.” Built from 40+ feeder leagues across 60+ draft classes shown on the site (~20 of which carry most of the signal driving the model). Updates each season as the prospect’s age, production, and league context change.

The projected career tier, calibrated from the player’s full outcome-probability distribution – not their most likely single bucket. Each tier earns points proportional to how likely it is, and the aggregate score lands the prospect at a tier. Forwards, defencemen, and goalies each have their own distribution and tier ladder.

The career production tier the player actually achieved, graded from the NHL games and scoring they really produced – not a projection. It runs on the same tier ladder as CarProj, but settled by what happened on the ice; players who never logged a meaningful NHL career read as “Never Reached NHL.” This is the realized outcome each redraft pick is graded against.